Hangzhou Greentown 2-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown host Tianjin Teda at Huizhou Olympic Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 20 August 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 5W 4D 1L at Huizhou Olympic Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hangzhou Greentown 1.50 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 3 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Tianjin Teda 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 76% | Tianjin Teda 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.16 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.180 / defence 1.116 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.960 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.352. Data: 51 Hangzhou Greentown games / 51 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 53% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 24%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Tianjin Teda 4.17. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.61 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Tianjin Teda 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Aug 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 53% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.16 / Tianjin Teda 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.180 / def 1.116 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.960 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.741 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Tianjin Teda xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 20 August 2025 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 53% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
Record (6 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 3W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 3W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.18x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.31
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.61
1.45
Tianjin Teda xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
12%
8.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
3%
35.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.45 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 19W 11D 21L from 51 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 18L across 51 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.33 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 13W 8D 5L from 26 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 9W 4D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.43 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 19W 11D 21L in their last 51 games (1.33 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 21W 12D 18L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.81 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
4
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Tianjin Teda 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hangzhou Greentown at 81%, Tianjin Teda at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Hangzhou Greentown and 77% for Tianjin Teda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 69% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 73% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 77% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Tianjin Teda 2-0 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.16 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.45 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Tianjin Teda landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.18 / defence 1.12 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 53% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 24%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 76%, Tianjin Teda 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.