Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Qingdao Youth Island travel to Huizhou Olympic Stadium to take on Hangzhou Greentown. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 April 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record at Huizhou Olympic Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hangzhou Greentown are significantly better at Huizhou Olympic Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Qingdao Youth Island are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hangzhou Greentown, 2 for Qingdao Youth Island and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2024, ended 2–5 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Qingdao Youth Island 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Qingdao Youth Island 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.01 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.079 / defence 1.032 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.163 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.441. Data: 38 Hangzhou Greentown games / 37 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 44% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 32%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Youth Island (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 90% | Qingdao Youth Island 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 44% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.01 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.079 / def 1.032 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.163 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Qingdao Youth Island xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 44% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (2 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 0W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Youth Island 2W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.08x the league average against Qingdao Youth Island's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
44%
2.30
24%
4.16
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.74
1.73
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.65
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
8%
12.97
4%
22.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.73 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 11W 5D 14L from 30 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Qingdao Youth Island, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 14L across 30 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.27 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 8W 3D 4L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record stands at 5W 1D 9L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.37 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Qingdao Youth Island in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 11W 5D 14L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.80 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 28 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jul 2024, when Qingdao Youth Island won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
0
Draws
3
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 3-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hangzhou Greentown at 80%, Qingdao Youth Island at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Hangzhou Greentown and 73% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 73% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 73% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Qingdao Youth Island 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Qingdao Youth Island 2-1 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.01 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.73 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 44% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 32%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 80%, Qingdao Youth Island 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.27 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.