Dalian Aerbin 0-5 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees SHANGHAI SIPG travel to Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium to take on Dalian Aerbin. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 August 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Aerbin stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 1D 3L this season (5 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SHANGHAI SIPG are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dalian Aerbin, 1 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2021, ended 0–3 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 40% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dalian Aerbin 40% | SHANGHAI SIPG 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 0.83 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.727 / defence 1.118 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.888 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.025 / away 1.235. Dalian Aerbin's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Dalian Aerbin games / 10 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 21% | Draw 37% | SHANGHAI SIPG 42%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 4.76 | Draw 2.70 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Dalian Aerbin 40% | SHANGHAI SIPG 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Aug 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 21% | Draw 37% | SHANGHAI SIPG 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Dalian Aerbin 0.83 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.727 / def 1.118 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.888 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.025 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.23
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 6 August 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Dalian Aerbin 0 - 5 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 21% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 42% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dalian Aerbin's attack rating (0.73) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
21%
4.66
37%
2.72
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.06
1.23
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
4.66
21%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
6%
15.89
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 15.7 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.23 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 2W 1D 7L from 10 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 1L across 10 games — 1.90 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalian Aerbin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record stands at 1W 3D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SHANGHAI SIPG's season.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.70 scored and 0.60 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 games (0.70 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 0.80 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
2
Draws
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Aerbin see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
SHANGHAI SIPG tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 40%, SHANGHAI SIPG 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Dalian Aerbin and 40% for SHANGHAI SIPG.
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 80% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 40% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Dalian Aerbin 0-5 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 0.83 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.23 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin fell 0.8 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.23 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.73 / defence 1.12 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 21% | Draw 37% | SHANGHAI SIPG 42%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 40%, SHANGHAI SIPG 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.