Dalian Aerbin 2-4 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua make the trip to Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium to face Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 9 August 2021 at 09:30 UTC.
Current Form
Dalian Aerbin's overall Super League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 games at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Shanghai Shenhua have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shanghai Shenhua are 0.60 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin in recent Super League fixtures (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dalian Aerbin 0W, Shanghai Shenhua 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2021, ended 2–3 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 36% versus Shanghai Shenhua 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 46% | Shanghai Shenhua 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 0.73 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.661 / defence 1.479 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.878 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.312. Dalian Aerbin's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Dalian Aerbin games / 11 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 13% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 58%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 7.69 | Draw 3.45 | Shanghai Shenhua 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (58%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Aerbin 33% | Shanghai Shenhua 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 9 Aug 2021, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 13% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Dalian Aerbin 0.73 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.661 / def 1.479 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.878 / def 1.114 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Shanghai Shenhua xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 09:30 on Monday 9 August 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 4 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 13% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 58% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 0 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dalian Aerbin's attack rating (0.66) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (0.88x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
13%
7.78
29%
3.42
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.43
1.70
Shanghai Shenhua xG
7.78
13%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
18%
5.49
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
2%
42.73
28%
3.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 15.0 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.70 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dalian Aerbin come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 1D 8L for 0.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shanghai Shenhua sit at 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dalian Aerbin's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Shanghai Shenhua have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.27 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 2W 1D 8L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 0.80 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
4
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Aerbin see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 20%, Shanghai Shenhua 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Dalian Aerbin and 40% for Shanghai Shenhua.
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 60% of games; Shanghai Shenhua in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 60% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 40% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shanghai Shenhua cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Dalian Aerbin 2-4 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 0.73 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.70 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.66 / defence 1.48 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 13% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 58%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 46%, Shanghai Shenhua 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.