Dalian Aerbin 4-1 Qingdao Huanghai – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Huanghai encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium plays host to Dalian Aerbin versus Qingdao Huanghai in Super League (Relegation Round - 8). Kick-off: Monday 3 January 2022 at 07:30 UK time.

Form

Dalian Aerbin (all games): 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Dalian Aerbin's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Qingdao Huanghai's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.

On the road, Qingdao Huanghai have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Dalian Aerbin's favour (0.90 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Dalian Aerbin, 0 for Qingdao Huanghai and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2021, ended Dalian Aerbin 2–1 Qingdao Huanghai — a Dalian Aerbin win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Dalian Aerbin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Qingdao Huanghai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 43% versus Qingdao Huanghai 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 48% | Qingdao Huanghai 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.36 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.852 / defence 1.362 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.684 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Qingdao Huanghai's defence rating of 1.378 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Qingdao Huanghai's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Dalian Aerbin's defence rating of 1.362 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Qingdao Huanghai's projected output up. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 14 games and Qingdao Huanghai's last 14.

Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 38% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Huanghai 31%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.61 | Draw 3.24 | Qingdao Huanghai 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 40% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Huanghai 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights