Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Nantong Zhiyun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalian Aerbin host Nantong Zhiyun at Dalian Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dalian Aerbin at Dalian Sports Center this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.80 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.003 / defence 0.995 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.357. Data: 34 Dalian Aerbin games / 0 Nantong Zhiyun games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 52% | Draw 24% | Nantong Zhiyun 24%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Nantong Zhiyun 4.17. Dalian Aerbin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Aerbin at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 52% | Draw 24% | Nantong Zhiyun 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.80 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.003 / def 0.995 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Nantong Zhiyun xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 52% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Nantong Zhiyun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Dalian Aerbin home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 1.00x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.09
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.95
1.15
Nantong Zhiyun xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
4%
25.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.15 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Pre-Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2023, when Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Nantong Zhiyun?
Dalian Aerbin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Aerbin edge out Nantong Zhiyun 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Nantong Zhiyun 2-1 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.80 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.15 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 52% | Draw 24% | Nantong Zhiyun 24%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.