Dalian Aerbin 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 55%, yet in-form Hangzhou Greentown provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium to take on Dalian Aerbin. The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 June 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Aerbin stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Hangzhou Greentown have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Hangzhou Greentown's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Dalian Aerbin's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.56 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.058 / defence 0.869 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.727 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.218. Hangzhou Greentown bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Dalian Aerbin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Dalian Aerbin games / 3 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 55% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 18%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Hangzhou Greentown 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Aerbin (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jun 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 55% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.56 / Hangzhou Greentown 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.058 / def 0.869 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.727 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Hangzhou Greentown xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 10:30 on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 55% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 1.06x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.68
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.33
0.77
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
4%
27.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 11.7 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 0.77 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Aerbin come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L. It's still early in the season for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 0.50 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 0%.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Early Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Dalian Aerbin or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Hangzhou Greentown?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 1-1 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.56 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 0.77 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.06 / defence 0.87 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.73 / defence 1.22, drawn from 17/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 55% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 18%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 0%, Hangzhou Greentown 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hangzhou Greentown shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.