Dalian Aerbin 0-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Relegation Round as Dalian Aerbin welcome Chengdu Better City to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 12 January 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Dalian Aerbin have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chengdu Better City have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dalian Aerbin at 1.30 PPG versus Chengdu Better City's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Chengdu Better City 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.15 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.861 / defence 1.347 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Dalian Aerbin games / 0 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 27% | Draw 30% | Chengdu Better City 43%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Chengdu Better City 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Jan 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 27% | Draw 30% | Chengdu Better City 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.15 / Chengdu Better City 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.861 / def 1.347 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Chengdu Better City xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 07:30 on Wednesday 12 January 2022 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Dalian Aerbin 0 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City is a Relegation Round fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 27% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 1 | Chengdu Better City 0W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 0.86x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
27%
3.65
30%
3.33
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.62
1.47
Chengdu Better City xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
6%
15.92
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.47 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Dalian Aerbin have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chengdu Better City's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dalian Aerbin on 1.00 PPG, Chengdu Better City on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Aerbin have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Chengdu Better City in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Early Season
Chengdu Better City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Dec 2022, when Chengdu Better City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
2
Draws
3
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2023, when Chengdu Better City 4-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Chengdu Better City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 100% of Chengdu Better City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 0% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Dalian Aerbin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Dalian Aerbin 0-1 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Relegation Round, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.15 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.47 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dalian Aerbin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.86 / defence 1.35 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 14/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 27% | Draw 30% | Chengdu Better City 43%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 0%, Chengdu Better City 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 1.00 PPG, Chengdu Better City 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chengdu Better City win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Aerbin managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Chengdu Better City conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.