Chengdu Better City 0-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 39%, yet in-form Wuhan Three Towns provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Wuhan Three Towns travel to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park to take on Chengdu Better City in Super League (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chengdu Better City stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Chengdu Better City have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Wuhan Three Towns have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wuhan Three Towns — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Chengdu Better City's games and 80% of Wuhan Three Towns's (from Chengdu Better City's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2023, ended Chengdu Better City 3–3 Wuhan Three Towns — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 48% versus Wuhan Three Towns 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 48% | Wuhan Three Towns 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.52 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.096 / defence 0.931 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.223 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.214. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack rating of 1.223, which lifts their away xG to 1.38. Data: built from Chengdu Better City's last 56 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 56.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 39% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 33%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 2.56 | Draw 3.61 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wuhan Three Towns (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chengdu Better City's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chengdu Better City 60% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 23 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 39% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Chengdu Better City 1.52 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.096 / def 0.931 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.223 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Wuhan Three Towns xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Chengdu Better City 0 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 23) (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 39% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.10) and Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chengdu Better City's last 56 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.61
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.90
1.38
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.38 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 56 games, going 28W 17D 11L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Wuhan Three Towns sit at 1.98 PPG from 56 outings (33W 12D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chengdu Better City on 1.80 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns on 1.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 15W 10D 3L across their last 28 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Three Towns have taken 2.04 points per game from their last 28 away games (17W 6D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.25 scored and 0.96 conceded. Wuhan Three Towns's attacking output running into Chengdu Better City's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Wuhan Three Towns in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Chengdu Better City (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns Form FAQs
What form are Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 28W 17D 11L in their last 56 games (1.80 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 33W 12D 11L in their last 56 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 1.96 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chengdu Better City
5
Draws
1
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Chengdu Better City 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 57%, Wuhan Three Towns 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Chengdu Better City and 64% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Wuhan Three Towns in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Chengdu Better City's games and 61% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 82% of Wuhan Three Towns's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wuhan Three Towns defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Chengdu Better City 0-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.52 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.38 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chengdu Better City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.22 / defence 0.91, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 39% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 33%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Wuhan Three Towns win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 48%, Wuhan Three Towns 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.80 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Three Towns win broke the near-deadlock. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.