Changchun Yatai 0-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Wuyuan River Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 November 2022, 07:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 4W 2D 4L at Wuyuan River Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Wuyuan River Stadium.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Changchun Yatai at 1.50 PPG versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (48 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (48 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.55 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.821 / defence 0.946 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.293 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.353. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Changchun Yatai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shijiazhuang Y. J. have an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Changchun Yatai games / 40 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 35% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Changchun Yatai 40% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Nov 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 35% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.55 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.821 / def 0.946 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.293 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 07:00 on Saturday 26 November 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 35% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (1 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 0 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (0.82) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
35%
2.83
25%
4.01
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.21
1.66
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
7%
14.81
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.66 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 48 games, going 19W 16D 13L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.08 PPG from 48 outings (12W 16D 20L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 11W 7D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (6W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.21 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 19W 16D 13L in their last 48 games (1.52 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 12W 16D 20L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.60 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Changchun Yatai
0
Draws
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 4, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2024, when Changchun Yatai 1-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 52%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Changchun Yatai) and 72% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Changchun Yatai's games and 68% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 72% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Changchun Yatai 0-2 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.55 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.66 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.29 / defence 1.25, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 35% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (48 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (48 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.