Changchun Yatai 1-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 57%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng meet at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 in Super League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 6 July 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shandong Luneng are 0.80 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai in recent Super League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Changchun Yatai, 2 for Shandong Luneng and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2022, ended 0–4 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 57% versus Shandong Luneng 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 50% | Shandong Luneng 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.69 xG and Shandong Luneng 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.007 / defence 0.856 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.813 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.129. Data: 22 Changchun Yatai games / 22 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 57% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 16%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Shandong Luneng 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Changchun Yatai (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Changchun Yatai 70% | Shandong Luneng 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Jul 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 57% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.69 / Shandong Luneng 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.007 / def 0.856 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.813 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Shandong Luneng xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 6 July 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 57% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng?
Record (3 meetings): Changchun Yatai 0W | Draws 1 | Shandong Luneng 2W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.01) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (0.81x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
57%
1.74
27%
3.75
16%
6.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.48
0.79
Shandong Luneng xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
6.33
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
3%
34.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.79 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 13W 11D 6L from 30 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 21W 6D 3L across 30 games — 2.30 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 7W 6D 1L from 14 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 7W 4D 3L across 14 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.03 scored and 0.73 conceded. Shandong Luneng's attacking output running into Changchun Yatai's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 13W 11D 6L in their last 30 games (1.67 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 21W 6D 3L in their last 30 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.93 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 9 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Shandong Luneng have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 4-0 on 16 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Changchun Yatai
2
Draws
8
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Shandong Luneng 2-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 57%, Shandong Luneng 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Changchun Yatai) and 43% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 50% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 43% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shandong Luneng defy the odds to beat Changchun Yatai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Changchun Yatai 1-2 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.69 xG and Shandong Luneng 0.79 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shandong Luneng outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.01 / defence 0.86 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 57% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 16%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Shandong Luneng win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 50%, Shandong Luneng 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.