Changchun Yatai 2-1 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F meet at Huadu Stadium in Super League, Championship Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 December 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Current Form
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Huadu Stadium: 5W 3D 1L from 9 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Huadu Stadium.
Guangzhou R&F have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Guangzhou R&F have posted 3W 4D 2L from 9 away outings — 1.44 PPG. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Changchun Yatai, 0 for Guangzhou R&F and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Changchun Yatai winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Guangzhou R&F goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Guangzhou R&F 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 56% | Guangzhou R&F 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.38 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.101 / defence 0.989 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.790 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Changchun Yatai games / 14 Guangzhou R&F games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 43% | Draw 31% | Guangzhou R&F 25%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Guangzhou R&F 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 33% | Guangzhou R&F 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 43% | Draw 31% | Guangzhou R&F 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.38 / Guangzhou R&F 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.101 / def 0.989 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.790 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Guangzhou R&F xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Changchun Yatai 2 - 1 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 43% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F?
Record (1 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou R&F 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.10) and Guangzhou R&F's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guangzhou R&F's attack (0.79x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
43%
2.30
31%
3.18
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.39
1.00
Guangzhou R&F xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.00 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 9W 5D 4L from 18 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou R&F, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 5L across 18 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.39 for Guangzhou R&F. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 5W 3D 1L from 9 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guangzhou R&F's away record stands at 3W 4D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.50 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 9W 5D 4L in their last 18 games (1.78 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 2.00 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Guangzhou R&F been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Guangzhou R&F in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Changchun Yatai have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Changchun Yatai won 4-1 on 4 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou R&F — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Changchun Yatai
0
Draws
0
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F?
From 4 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 4, Guangzhou R&F have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 24 June 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 1-3 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Changchun Yatai see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Guangzhou R&F see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Changchun Yatai) and 33% (Guangzhou R&F) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Changchun Yatai and 22% for Guangzhou R&F.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Guangzhou R&F in 44%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 33% of games; Guangzhou R&F in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Guangzhou R&F?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 33% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 22% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Guangzhou R&F 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Guangzhou R&F 2-1 at Huadu Stadium, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.38 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.00 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 43% | Draw 31% | Guangzhou R&F 25%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 56%, Guangzhou R&F 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.78 PPG, Guangzhou R&F 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.