Changchun Yatai 0-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun's People Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Monday 24 October 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Form
Changchun Yatai (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Changchun's People Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Changchun's People Stadium this season.
Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Changchun Yatai, 1.50 for Beijing Guoan — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Changchun Yatai, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 57% versus Beijing Guoan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Beijing Guoan 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.26 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.831 / defence 0.975 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.143 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.299. Data: 34 Changchun Yatai games / 34 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 27% | Beijing Guoan 41%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Beijing Guoan 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 50% | Beijing Guoan 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 27% | Beijing Guoan 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.26 / Beijing Guoan 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.831 / def 0.975 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.143 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Beijing Guoan xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 08:30 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 32% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
Record (2 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.83x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.14x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
32%
3.12
27%
3.66
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.71
1.45
Beijing Guoan xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
8%
13.25
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.45 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 17W 14D 11L from 42 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 12L across 42 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.52 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 9W 7D 5L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 7W 4D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.38 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 17W 14D 11L in their last 42 games (1.55 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 17W 13D 12L in their last 42 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.62 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 8-1 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
7
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Changchun Yatai 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 52%, Beijing Guoan 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Changchun Yatai) and 62% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 57% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 62% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Changchun Yatai 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Changchun Yatai 0-1 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.26 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.45 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Changchun Yatai fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.14 / defence 1.18, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 27% | Beijing Guoan 41%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Beijing Guoan 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.55 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.