Beijing Guoan 3-3 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beijing Guoan (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beijing Guoan face Yunnan Yukun.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Yunnan Yukun at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 6W 2D 2L at Beijing Workers' Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Beijing Guoan are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Yunnan Yukun in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Beijing Guoan have won 2, Yunnan Yukun 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Yunnan Yukun in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 64% and Yunnan Yukun 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Beijing Guoan 68% | Yunnan Yukun 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.35 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.115 / defence 0.873 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.202 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.342. Yunnan Yukun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Beijing Guoan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Yunnan Yukun have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Beijing Guoan games / 53 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 58% | Draw 19% | Yunnan Yukun 22%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.72 | Draw 5.26 | Yunnan Yukun 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 60% | Yunnan Yukun 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Beijing Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 58% | Draw 19% | Yunnan Yukun 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 68% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.35 / Yunnan Yukun 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.115 / def 0.873 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.202 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Yunnan Yukun xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?
Beijing Guoan 3 - 3 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 58% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 22% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (3 meetings): Beijing Guoan 2W | Draws 1 | Yunnan Yukun 0W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.11) and Yunnan Yukun's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
58%
1.71
19%
5.17
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.76
1.41
Yunnan Yukun xG
1.71
58%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
10%
10.48
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
2%
47.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.41 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 28W 13D 12L from 53 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Yunnan Yukun, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 19L across 53 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yunnan Yukun heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 16W 4D 6L from 26 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Yunnan Yukun's away record stands at 6W 7D 13L across 26 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.75 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Yunnan Yukun in 75%.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 28W 13D 12L in their last 53 games (1.83 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 21W 13D 19L in their last 53 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.00 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Yunnan Yukun been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Yunnan Yukun in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Yunnan Yukun specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Beijing Guoan
2
Draws
0
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 2, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 3-3 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beijing Guoan at 69%, Yunnan Yukun at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Beijing Guoan and 69% for Yunnan Yukun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Yunnan Yukun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Beijing Guoan's games and 85% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 69% of Yunnan Yukun's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Yunnan Yukun in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun finished level at 3-3 at Beijing Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.35 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.41 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.20 / defence 1.24, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 58% | Draw 19% | Yunnan Yukun 22%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 68%, Yunnan Yukun 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.