Beijing Guoan 2-4 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Beijing Workers' Stadium to take on Beijing Guoan. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026, 11:35 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Beijing Guoan's home record at Beijing Workers' Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beijing Guoan 1.50 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Tianjin Teda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Beijing Guoan have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 8 past contests while Tianjin Teda have managed just 0 wins.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The historical record gives Beijing Guoan a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 65% and Tianjin Teda 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 67% | Tianjin Teda 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.44 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.002 / defence 1.090 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.982 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.095. Data: 37 Beijing Guoan games / 37 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 43% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 31%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Tianjin Teda 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.7 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 80% | Tianjin Teda 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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