Beijing Guoan 4-2 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Shanghai Shenhua at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Beijing Guoan have gone 4W 2D 0L this season (6 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shanghai Shenhua — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record: 3W 1D 2L from 6 road trips in Super League this season (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Beijing Guoan at 1.80 PPG versus Shanghai Shenhua's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 54% versus Shanghai Shenhua 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 46% | Shanghai Shenhua 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.34 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.035 / defence 0.953 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.081 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.279. Data: 13 Beijing Guoan games / 13 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 35% | Draw 31% | Shanghai Shenhua 34%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 67% | Shanghai Shenhua 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 35% | Draw 31% | Shanghai Shenhua 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.34 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.035 / def 0.953 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.081 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Shanghai Shenhua xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Beijing Guoan 4 - 2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 35% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
35%
2.84
31%
3.27
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.65
1.32
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
9%
10.61
9%
11.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.32 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 6W 3D 4L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 6W 4D 3L from 13 games, 1.69 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beijing Guoan on 1.62 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 2.33 PPG from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Beijing Guoan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.46 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua in 62%.
Defensively: Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.33 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
4
Draws
2
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beijing Guoan at 67%, Shanghai Shenhua at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Beijing Guoan) and 50% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Beijing Guoan's games and 67% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 17% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Shanghai Shenhua.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shanghai Shenhua 4-2 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.34 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.32 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.08 / defence 1.16, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 35% | Draw 31% | Shanghai Shenhua 34%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 46%, Shanghai Shenhua 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.62 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.