Universidad de Chile 1-0 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Universidad de Chile at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 27 as Universidad de Chile welcome Union La Calera to Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Universidad de Chile have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Chile's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
Union La Calera — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Universidad de Chile) versus 1.80 (Union La Calera). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Universidad de Chile have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Union La Calera have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Universidad de Chile winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Universidad de Chile and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Universidad de Chile 56% and Union La Calera 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 57% | Union La Calera 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.28 xG and Union La Calera 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.976 / defence 0.693 | Union La Calera attack 0.833 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.100. Universidad de Chile's defence rating of 0.693 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Universidad de Chile games / 54 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 52% | Draw 29% | Union La Calera 19%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Union La Calera 5.26. Universidad de Chile hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Union La Calera's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Universidad de Chile 40% | Union La Calera 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 52% | Draw 29% | Union La Calera 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 34% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.28 / Union La Calera 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.976 / def 0.693 | Union La Calera attack 0.833 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Union La Calera xG
34%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera?
Universidad de Chile 1 - 0 Union La Calera.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 52% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera?
Record (6 meetings): Universidad de Chile 4W | Draws 1 | Union La Calera 1W.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Universidad de Chile's attack rating (0.98) and Union La Calera's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Universidad de Chile's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.40
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
1.91
0.64
Union La Calera xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
5%
19.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.64 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Universidad de Chile come into this having played 54 games, going 26W 14D 14L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 1.26 PPG from 54 outings (17W 17D 20L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Universidad de Chile carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Universidad de Chile's home form reads 11W 10D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 1.31 points per game from 26 outings (8W 10D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.24 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera in 65%.
Defensively: Universidad de Chile have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 26W 14D 14L in their last 54 games (1.70 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 17W 17D 20L in their last 54 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Union La Calera away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 1.65 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Universidad de Chile or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Universidad de Chile have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 14 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2025, when Universidad de Chile won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Universidad de Chile's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Universidad de Chile
2
Draws
1
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 7, Union La Calera have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 14 June 2026, when Union La Calera 2-2 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Universidad de Chile see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Universidad de Chile 50%, Union La Calera 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Universidad de Chile) and 35% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Universidad de Chile's recent matches and 58% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 35% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Universidad de Chile have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out Union La Calera 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Union La Calera 1-0 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.28 xG and Union La Calera 0.64 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.98 / defence 0.69 against Union La Calera attack 0.83 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 52% | Draw 29% | Union La Calera 19%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 57%, Union La Calera 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union La Calera's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.