Universidad de Chile 1-1 Huachipato – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Universidad de Chile take on Huachipato.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 2 as Universidad de Chile welcome Huachipato to Estadio El Teniente. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 April 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 0.84 xG and Huachipato 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Huachipato attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.857 / away 1.105. Data: 0 Universidad de Chile games / 1 Huachipato games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 24% | Draw 39% | Huachipato 37%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 4.17 | Draw 2.56 | Huachipato 2.70. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Huachipato | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 24% | Draw 39% | Huachipato 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 41% | xG Universidad de Chile 0.84 / Huachipato 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Huachipato attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.857 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Huachipato xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Huachipato kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Huachipato kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 3 April 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Huachipato?
Universidad de Chile 1 - 1 Huachipato.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Huachipato being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Huachipato part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Huachipato is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Huachipato?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 24% chance of winning, Huachipato a 37% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Huachipato?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Huachipato will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Huachipato have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Huachipato?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Huachipato in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Universidad de Chile's attack rating (0.85) and Huachipato's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Huachipato's attack versus Universidad de Chile's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (0/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.18
39%
2.55
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
1.92
1.08
Huachipato xG
4.18
24%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
16%
6.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 15.9 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Huachipato?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Huachipato expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.08 for Huachipato, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Huachipato?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
Huachipato
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Universidad de Chile and Huachipato runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when Huachipato won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Universidad de Chile's record when hosting Huachipato specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Universidad de Chile
0
Draws
4
Huachipato
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Huachipato?
From 10 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 6, Huachipato have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Huachipato last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Universidad de Chile 2-0 Huachipato.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Huachipato?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Huachipato away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Universidad de Chile and Huachipato share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 2, as Universidad de Chile and Huachipato drew 1-1 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 0.84 xG and Huachipato 1.08 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Huachipato attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 24% | Draw 39% | Huachipato 37%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.