Universidad de Chile 1-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to take on Universidad de Chile. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 November 2023, 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Universidad de Chile have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Chile's home record at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Coquimbo Unido — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Universidad de Chile) versus 1.20 (Coquimbo Unido). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Universidad de Chile, 2 for Coquimbo Unido and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Universidad de Chile 61% and Coquimbo Unido 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 54% | Coquimbo Unido 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.41 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.939 / defence 0.988 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.012 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.354. Data: 57 Universidad de Chile games / 57 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 38% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 36%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Coquimbo Unido 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Universidad de Chile 50% | Coquimbo Unido 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 38% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.41 / Coquimbo Unido 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.939 / def 0.988 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.012 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Coquimbo Unido xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 21:00 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Universidad de Chile 1 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 38% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (3 meetings): Universidad de Chile 0W | Draws 1 | Coquimbo Unido 2W.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Universidad de Chile's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Coquimbo Unido's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Universidad de Chile's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
38%
2.60
25%
3.92
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.76
1.35
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.35 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Universidad de Chile come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 13D 26L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 1.25 PPG from 57 outings (20W 11D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Universidad de Chile on 1.18 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Universidad de Chile's home form reads 9W 9D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 0.86 points per game from 28 outings (6W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Universidad de Chile come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.25 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Universidad de Chile have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Coquimbo Unido in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 18W 13D 26L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 20W 11D 26L in their last 57 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 1.29 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Universidad de Chile's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Universidad de Chile
3
Draws
4
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 0-1 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Universidad de Chile see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Universidad de Chile 54%, Coquimbo Unido 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Universidad de Chile) and 50% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Universidad de Chile have failed to score in 29% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Universidad de Chile's games and 57% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Universidad de Chile have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat Universidad de Chile 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Universidad de Chile 1-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.41 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.35 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 38% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 36%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 54%, Coquimbo Unido 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 1.18 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.