Union La Calera 1-4 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union La Calera host Universidad de Chile at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in Primera División, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union La Calera — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera's home record at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar: 6W 1D 0L from 7 Primera División appearances (2.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
Across all Primera División games this season, Universidad de Chile have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Universidad de Chile have posted 3W 2D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.57 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Union La Calera have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Union La Calera trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Universidad de Chile trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 40% versus Universidad de Chile 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Union La Calera 40% | Universidad de Chile 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.05 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.959 / defence 0.830 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.954 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.164. Data: 15 Union La Calera games / 15 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 36% | Draw 35% | Universidad de Chile 29%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Universidad de Chile 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union La Calera at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Union La Calera 43% | Universidad de Chile 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 36% | Draw 35% | Universidad de Chile 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Union La Calera 1.05 / Universidad de Chile 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.959 / def 0.830 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.954 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Universidad de Chile xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Union La Calera 1 - 4 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 36% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Universidad de Chile (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 0.96x the league average against Universidad de Chile's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Universidad de Chile's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
36%
2.78
35%
2.86
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
1.98
0.92
Universidad de Chile xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.92 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Union La Calera have picked up 2.07 PPG on a 9W 4D 2L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Universidad de Chile's form line: 7W 4D 4L from 15 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 2.07 PPG, Universidad de Chile on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union La Calera have posted 2.71 PPG from 7 outings (6W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.07 PPG overall — Union La Calera are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Universidad de Chile have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.13 scored and 0.87 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Universidad de Chile
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 9W 4D 2L in their last 15 games (2.07 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 7W 4D 4L in their last 15 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Universidad de Chile away?
Union La Calera's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 2.71 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Universidad de Chile been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Universidad de Chile in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 14 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2025, when Universidad de Chile won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Universidad de Chile specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Union La Calera
2
Draws
7
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 1, Universidad de Chile have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 14 June 2026, when Union La Calera 2-2 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Universidad de Chile see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 43%, Universidad de Chile 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Union La Calera) and 57% (Universidad de Chile).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Universidad de Chile in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Universidad de Chile?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 57% of Universidad de Chile's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Union La Calera's recent games and 57% of Universidad de Chile's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Universidad de Chile in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Universidad de Chile run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Union La Calera 1-4 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.05 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.92 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Universidad de Chile outscored their 0.92 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.96 / defence 0.83 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 36% | Draw 35% | Universidad de Chile 29%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Universidad de Chile win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 40%, Universidad de Chile 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 2.07 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Universidad de Chile win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.