Union La Calera 0-2 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs U. Catolica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar plays host to Union La Calera versus U. Catolica in Primera División, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 3 October 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union La Calera have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union La Calera have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
U. Catolica (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
U. Catolica's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Union La Calera, 1.60 for U. Catolica — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Union La Calera goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
U. Catolica goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 52% versus U. Catolica 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 48% | U. Catolica 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.53 xG and U. Catolica 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.900 / defence 1.048 | U. Catolica attack 0.963 / defence 1.536. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.167. U. Catolica bring a strong defensive rating of 1.536 — this is suppressing Union La Calera's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Union La Calera games / 21 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 44% | Draw 28% | U. Catolica 28%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | U. Catolica 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union La Calera as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union La Calera if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union La Calera 50% | U. Catolica 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 44% | Draw 28% | U. Catolica 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Union La Calera 1.53 / U. Catolica 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.900 / def 1.048 | U. Catolica attack 0.963 / def 1.536 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.18
U. Catolica xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs U. Catolica kick off?
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica kicked off at 00:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs U. Catolica?
Union La Calera 0 - 2 U. Catolica.
Where is Union La Calera vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs U. Catolica part of?
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 44% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Union La Calera and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and U. Catolica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union La Calera and U. Catolica in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. U. Catolica (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union La Calera's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against U. Catolica's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — U. Catolica's attack (0.96x) against Union La Calera's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.53
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.71
1.18
U. Catolica xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.41
6%
16.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.18 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 12W 4D 5L from 21 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
U. Catolica, meanwhile, have gone 12W 2D 7L across 21 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Union La Calera against 1.81 for U. Catolica. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 6W 2D 2L from 10 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
U. Catolica's away record stands at 3W 0D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of U. Catolica's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union La Calera are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 1.86 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
U. Catolica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 12W 4D 5L in their last 21 games (1.90 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 12W 2D 7L in their last 21 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or U. Catolica away?
Union La Calera's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 2.00 PPG; U. Catolica away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or U. Catolica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, U. Catolica in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union La Calera won 4-0 on 23 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union La Calera have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against U. Catolica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union La Calera
3
Draws
5
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and U. Catolica?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 2, U. Catolica have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when U. Catolica 1-2 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
U. Catolica see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, U. Catolica 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Union La Calera) and 60% (U. Catolica).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; U. Catolica in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play U. Catolica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 50% of U. Catolica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs U. Catolica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Union La Calera's recent games and 60% of U. Catolica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and U. Catolica tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, U. Catolica in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
U. Catolica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Union La Calera 0-2 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.53 xG and U. Catolica 1.18 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union La Calera fell 1.5 short of their projected output. U. Catolica outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against U. Catolica attack 0.96 / defence 1.54, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 44% | Draw 28% | U. Catolica 28%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual U. Catolica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 48%, U. Catolica 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
U. Catolica's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.90 PPG, U. Catolica 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.