Union La Calera 0-1 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union La Calera at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Nublense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 4 as Union La Calera welcome Nublense to Municipal Nicolas Chahuan. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 February 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Primera División games this season, Nublense have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nublense's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union La Calera 0.60 PPG, Nublense 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Union La Calera have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 8 past contests while Nublense have managed just 0 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with Union La Calera winning.
The historical record gives Union La Calera a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Union La Calera trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Nublense trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 43% versus Nublense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 40% | Nublense 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.59 xG and Nublense 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 1.056 / defence 1.039 | Nublense attack 0.978 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 0.962. Data: 33 Union La Calera games / 33 Nublense games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 52% | Draw 25% | Nublense 23%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Nublense 4.35. Union La Calera hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 40% | Nublense 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Municipal Nicolas Chahuan • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 52% | Draw 25% | Nublense 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Union La Calera 1.59 / Nublense 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 1.056 / def 1.039 | Nublense attack 0.978 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.504 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Nublense xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Nublense kick off?
Union La Calera vs Nublense kicked off at 21:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Union La Calera 0 - 1 Nublense.
Where is Union La Calera vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Nublense part of?
Union La Calera vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 52% chance of winning, Nublense a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Union La Calera and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Nublense?
Record (8 meetings): Union La Calera 3W | Draws 5 | Nublense 0W.
What form are Union La Calera and Nublense in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Nublense (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union La Calera's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Nublense's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Nublense's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
52%
1.94
25%
3.98
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.56
0.98
Nublense xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
5%
20.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.98 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 17W 12D 31L from 60 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Nublense, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 25L across 60 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.05 PPG, Nublense on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 11W 5D 14L from 30 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nublense's away record stands at 9W 6D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Union La Calera are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.18 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Nublense in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Nublense in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 17W 12D 31L in their last 60 games (1.05 PPG), while Nublense have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Nublense away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.27 PPG; Nublense away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Nublense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Nublense in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Nublense have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Union La Calera won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Nublense specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union La Calera
5
Draws
2
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 3, Nublense have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Nublense 2-1 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Nublense?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, Nublense 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Union La Calera) and 47% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera have failed to score in 30% of games; Nublense in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Nublense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 47% of Nublense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Union La Calera's recent games and 47% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Nublense tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Nublense in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nublense defy the odds to beat Union La Calera 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Union La Calera 0-1 at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.59 xG and Nublense 0.98 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union La Calera fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Nublense attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 52% | Draw 25% | Nublense 23%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Nublense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 40%, Nublense 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.05 PPG, Nublense 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Nublense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.