Union La Calera 3-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union La Calera at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union La Calera host Everton de Vina at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in Primera División, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Union La Calera have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Union La Calera have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union La Calera register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Everton de Vina in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Union La Calera, 0 for Everton de Vina and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Union La Calera winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 53% versus Everton de Vina 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 48% | Everton de Vina 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.50 xG and Everton de Vina 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 1.133 / defence 0.899 | Everton de Vina attack 1.017 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.295. Data: 31 Union La Calera games / 31 Everton de Vina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 44% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 30%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Everton de Vina 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union La Calera at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 60% | Everton de Vina 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 44% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Union La Calera 1.50 / Everton de Vina 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 1.133 / def 0.899 | Everton de Vina attack 1.017 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Everton de Vina xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Union La Calera 3 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina part of?
Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 44% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Union La Calera and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
Record (2 meetings): Union La Calera 1W | Draws 1 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 1.13x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.92
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.69
1.19
Everton de Vina xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.19 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union La Calera come into this having played 62 games, going 24W 18D 20L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.31 PPG from 62 outings (19W 24D 19L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.45 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union La Calera's home form reads 13W 9D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.16 points per game from 31 outings (8W 12D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Union La Calera are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.11 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 24W 18D 20L in their last 62 games (1.45 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 19W 24D 19L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Everton de Vina away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.55 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Union La Calera's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union La Calera
3
Draws
1
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 6, Everton de Vina have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Union La Calera 1-1 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 52%, Everton de Vina 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Union La Calera and 29% for Everton de Vina.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 52% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Union La Calera's recent games and 29% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union La Calera edge out Everton de Vina 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Everton de Vina 3-2 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.50 xG and Everton de Vina 1.19 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.13 / defence 0.90 against Everton de Vina attack 1.02 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 44% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 30%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 48%, Everton de Vina 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.45 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.