Union La Calera 1-0 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union La Calera at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union La Calera host Everton de Vina at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in Primera División, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Union La Calera have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Union La Calera are significantly better at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Everton de Vina — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Union La Calera: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Everton de Vina, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Union La Calera a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 43% versus Everton de Vina 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 37% | Everton de Vina 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.31 xG and Everton de Vina 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.790 / defence 1.184 | Everton de Vina attack 0.947 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.108. Union La Calera's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Union La Calera games / 51 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 38% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 35%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Everton de Vina 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Union La Calera dominate the H2H record, yet Everton de Vina are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union La Calera at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Everton de Vina (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union La Calera 50% | Everton de Vina 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 38% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Union La Calera 1.31 / Everton de Vina 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.790 / def 1.184 | Everton de Vina attack 0.947 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Everton de Vina xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 00:30 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Union La Calera 1 - 0 Everton de Vina.
Where is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina part of?
Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 38% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union La Calera and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
Record (7 meetings): Union La Calera 4W | Draws 2 | Everton de Vina 1W.
What form are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 0.79x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
38%
2.62
27%
3.75
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.55
1.24
Everton de Vina xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.24 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union La Calera come into this having played 51 games, going 14W 12D 25L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.31 PPG from 51 outings (17W 16D 18L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.06 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union La Calera's home form reads 9W 5D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.21 points per game from 24 outings (8W 5D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Union La Calera are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.39 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 14W 12D 25L in their last 51 games (1.06 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 17W 16D 18L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Everton de Vina away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.33 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Union La Calera's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union La Calera
3
Draws
1
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 6, Everton de Vina have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Union La Calera 1-1 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 54%, Everton de Vina 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Union La Calera and 67% for Everton de Vina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Union La Calera's games and 71% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Union La Calera's matches and 67% of Everton de Vina's.
Do Union La Calera and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union La Calera edge out Everton de Vina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Everton de Vina 1-0 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.31 xG and Everton de Vina 1.24 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton de Vina landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Everton de Vina attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 38% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 35%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 37%, Everton de Vina 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.06 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.