Union La Calera 1-0 Curico Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union La Calera at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Curico Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Curico Unido make the trip to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar to face Union La Calera in Primera División, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 July 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Form
Union La Calera (all games): 5W 2D 2L across 9 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.89 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 0.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.78 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union La Calera have posted 3W 1D 0L at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.89 — Union La Calera are significantly better at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar than their overall form suggests.
Curico Unido have collected 0.67 PPG across 9 Primera División outings this season: 1W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Curico Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Curico Unido's away record: 0W 0D 4L from 4 road trips in Primera División this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Union La Calera. A 1.22 PPG lead over Curico Unido (1.89 vs 0.67) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Union La Calera — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Curico Unido — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 33% versus Curico Unido 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Union La Calera 33% | Curico Unido 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.24 xG and Curico Unido 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.997 / defence 1.000 | Curico Unido attack 0.691 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 0.932 / away 0.918. Curico Unido bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Union La Calera's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Union La Calera games / 9 Curico Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 51% | Draw 31% | Curico Unido 19%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Curico Unido 5.26. Union La Calera hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Curico Unido's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union La Calera if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 50% | Curico Unido 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Curico Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 51% | Draw 31% | Curico Unido 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 34% | xG Union La Calera 1.24 / Curico Unido 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.997 / def 1.000 | Curico Unido attack 0.691 / def 1.332 | league avg home 0.932 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Curico Unido xG
34%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Curico Unido kick off?
Union La Calera vs Curico Unido kicked off at 01:30 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Union La Calera 1 - 0 Curico Unido.
Where is Union La Calera vs Curico Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Curico Unido part of?
Union La Calera vs Curico Unido is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 51% chance of winning, Curico Unido a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Union La Calera and Curico Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Curico Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Curico Unido?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union La Calera and Curico Unido in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 0.78 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Curico Unido (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.56 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 1.00x the league average against Curico Unido's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Curico Unido's attack (0.69x) against Union La Calera's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
51%
1.98
31%
3.25
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
1.87
0.63
Curico Unido xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.97
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
5%
18.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 12.1 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Curico Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.63 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Curico Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 5W 2D 2L from 9 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Curico Unido, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 5L across 9 games — 0.67 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Curico Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union La Calera by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Curico Unido heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Union La Calera are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Curico Unido's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Curico Unido's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union La Calera are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Curico Unido are on 0.89 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Curico Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Curico Unido in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while Curico Unido have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Curico Unido away?
Union La Calera's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 2.50 PPG; Curico Unido away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Curico Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Curico Unido in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Union La Calera have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union La Calera won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union La Calera have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Curico Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Union La Calera
2
Draws
1
Curico Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Curico Unido?
From 6 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 3, Curico Unido have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Curico Unido last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2023, when Curico Unido 0-3 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Curico Unido?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union La Calera see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, Curico Unido 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Union La Calera and 25% for Curico Unido.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Curico Unido in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Curico Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Curico Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 25% of Curico Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Curico Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Union La Calera's recent games and 25% of Curico Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Curico Unido tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Curico Unido in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union La Calera edge out Curico Unido 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Curico Unido 1-0 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.24 xG and Curico Unido 0.63 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Curico Unido attack 0.69 / defence 1.33, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 51% | Draw 31% | Curico Unido 19%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 33%, Curico Unido 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Curico Unido's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union La Calera arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Curico Unido (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.