Union La Calera 1-2 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Cobresal travel to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar to take on Union La Calera. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 October 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cobresal — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cobresal have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Union La Calera) versus 1.30 (Cobresal). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Cobresal in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 46% versus Cobresal 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 42% | Cobresal 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.05 xG and Cobresal 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.818 / defence 1.043 | Cobresal attack 0.661 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.033 / away 1.280. Cobresal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Union La Calera's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Union La Calera games / 25 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 39% | Draw 32% | Cobresal 30%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Cobresal 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 40% | Cobresal 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 39% | Draw 32% | Cobresal 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Union La Calera 1.05 / Cobresal 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.818 / def 1.043 | Cobresal attack 0.661 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.033 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cobresal xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Cobresal kick off?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal kicked off at 01:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Union La Calera 1 - 2 Cobresal.
Where is Union La Calera vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Cobresal part of?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 39% chance of winning, Cobresal a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Union La Calera and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union La Calera and Cobresal in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Cobresal (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union La Calera's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
39%
2.58
32%
3.17
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
1.94
0.88
Cobresal xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.88 for Cobresal, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union La Calera come into this having played 24 games, going 13W 5D 6L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (9W 4D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union La Calera carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Cobresal — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union La Calera's home form reads 6W 2D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.73 points per game from 11 outings (2W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.29 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 13W 5D 6L in their last 24 games (1.83 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 9W 4D 11L in their last 24 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Cobresal away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.82 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cobresal in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union La Calera and Cobresal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2026, when Cobresal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union La Calera
1
Draws
6
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 3, Cobresal have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Cobresal 4-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 46%, Cobresal 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Union La Calera) and 54% (Cobresal).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cobresal in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 54% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Union La Calera's recent games and 54% of Cobresal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Cobresal tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cobresal defy the odds to beat Union La Calera 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Union La Calera 1-2 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.05 xG and Cobresal 0.88 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cobresal outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Cobresal attack 0.66 / defence 1.25, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 39% | Draw 32% | Cobresal 30%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cobresal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 42%, Cobresal 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Cobresal's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union La Calera arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Cobresal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.