Union La Calera 3-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 51%, yet in-form Cobresal provide a compelling counter-argument — this Union La Calera vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Cobresal travel to Municipal Nicolas Chahuan to take on Union La Calera. The game is scheduled for Monday 9 February 2026, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Cobresal — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cobresal have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cobresal's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Union La Calera's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Cobresal have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 2 for Union La Calera.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Cobresal winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cobresal have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cobresal in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 43% versus Cobresal 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 40% | Cobresal 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.55 xG and Cobresal 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.913 / defence 1.039 | Cobresal attack 0.961 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 0.957. Data: 31 Union La Calera games / 31 Cobresal games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 51% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 23%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Cobresal 4.35. Union La Calera hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cobresal (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 40% | Cobresal 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Municipal Nicolas Chahuan • Kick-off: Monday 9 Feb 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 51% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Union La Calera 1.55 / Cobresal 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.913 / def 1.039 | Cobresal attack 0.961 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.517 / away 0.957 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Cobresal xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Cobresal kick off?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 9 February 2026 at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Union La Calera 3 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Union La Calera vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Cobresal part of?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 51% chance of winning, Cobresal a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Union La Calera and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
Record (8 meetings): Union La Calera 2W | Draws 1 | Cobresal 5W.
What form are Union La Calera and Cobresal in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Cobresal (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union La Calera's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.92
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.51
0.96
Cobresal xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
5%
20.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.96 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union La Calera come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 12D 31L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (22W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.05 PPG, Cobresal on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union La Calera's home form reads 11W 5D 14L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (6W 7D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.33 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 17W 12D 31L in their last 60 games (1.05 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Cobresal away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.27 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union La Calera and Cobresal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2026, when Cobresal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union La Calera
1
Draws
6
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 3, Cobresal have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Cobresal 4-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, Cobresal 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Union La Calera) and 53% (Cobresal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera have failed to score in 30% of games; Cobresal in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 43% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Union La Calera's matches and 53% of Cobresal's.
Do Union La Calera and Cobresal tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union La Calera cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cobresal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Cobresal 3-1 at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.55 xG and Cobresal 0.96 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Cobresal attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 51% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 23%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 40%, Cobresal 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.05 PPG, Cobresal 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.