Union La Calera 1-1 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union La Calera at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Antofagasta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Antofagasta travel to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar to take on Union La Calera. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022, 01:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Union La Calera have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union La Calera have posted 2W 6D 2L at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antofagasta stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antofagasta's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Union La Calera are in the better shape of the two on current Primera División data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Union La Calera, 0 for Antofagasta and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Union La Calera in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Antofagasta in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 53% versus Antofagasta 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 47% | Antofagasta 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.20 xG and Antofagasta 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.930 / defence 1.074 | Antofagasta attack 0.771 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.160. Data: 53 Union La Calera games / 53 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 41% | Draw 29% | Antofagasta 29%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Antofagasta 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union La Calera as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 50% | Antofagasta 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 41% | Draw 29% | Antofagasta 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Union La Calera 1.20 / Antofagasta 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.930 / def 1.074 | Antofagasta attack 0.771 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Antofagasta xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Antofagasta kick off?
Union La Calera vs Antofagasta kicked off at 01:30 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Antofagasta?
Union La Calera 1 - 1 Antofagasta.
Where is Union La Calera vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Antofagasta part of?
Union La Calera vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 41% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Union La Calera and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Antofagasta?
Record (3 meetings): Union La Calera 2W | Draws 1 | Antofagasta 0W.
What form are Union La Calera and Antofagasta in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Antofagasta (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union La Calera's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Antofagasta's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Antofagasta's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
41%
2.41
29%
3.43
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.16
0.96
Antofagasta xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.96 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 19W 16D 18L from 53 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antofagasta, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 20L across 53 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.38 PPG, Antofagasta on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 9W 8D 9L from 26 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antofagasta's away record stands at 4W 10D 12L across 26 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Antofagasta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 19W 16D 18L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 16W 17D 20L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Antofagasta away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.35 PPG; Antofagasta away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Antofagasta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Antofagasta in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union La Calera and Antofagasta runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Antofagasta specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Union La Calera
2
Draws
0
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 2, Antofagasta have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2022, when Union La Calera 1-1 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Antofagasta?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, Antofagasta 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Union La Calera and 27% for Antofagasta.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Antofagasta in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Antofagasta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 42% of Antofagasta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Union La Calera's recent games and 27% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Antofagasta tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union La Calera and Antofagasta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera and Antofagasta finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.20 xG and Antofagasta 0.96 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Antofagasta attack 0.77 / defence 0.85, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 41% | Draw 29% | Antofagasta 29%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 47%, Antofagasta 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Antofagasta's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.38 PPG, Antofagasta 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.