Union Espanola 3-1 Huachipato – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs Huachipato fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union Espanola host Huachipato at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Primera División, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 28 July 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Espanola stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Espanola have posted 2W 2D 1L at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Huachipato have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Huachipato, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Huachipato's away record: 0W 3D 2L from 5 road trips in Primera División this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union Espanola 1.20 PPG, Huachipato 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Espanola register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Huachipato in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Union Espanola in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Huachipato in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 64% versus Huachipato 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Union Espanola 46% | Huachipato 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.59 xG and Huachipato 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.098 / defence 1.322 | Huachipato attack 0.965 / defence 1.502. League average goals — home 0.965 / away 0.930. Huachipato bring a strong defensive rating of 1.502 — this is suppressing Union Espanola's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Union Espanola games / 11 Huachipato games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 44% | Draw 30% | Huachipato 26%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Huachipato 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Espanola at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Espanola offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Espanola 80% | Huachipato 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Huachipato | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jul 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 44% | Draw 30% | Huachipato 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Union Espanola 1.59 / Huachipato 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.098 / def 1.322 | Huachipato attack 0.965 / def 1.502 | league avg home 0.965 / away 0.930 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Huachipato xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Huachipato kick off?
Union Espanola vs Huachipato kicked off at 20:30 on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Huachipato?
Union Espanola 3 - 1 Huachipato.
Where is Union Espanola vs Huachipato being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Huachipato part of?
Union Espanola vs Huachipato is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Huachipato?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 44% chance of winning, Huachipato a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Huachipato?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Union Espanola and Huachipato will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Huachipato have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Huachipato?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Espanola and Huachipato in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Huachipato (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Espanola's attack at 1.10x the league average against Huachipato's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Huachipato's attack versus Union Espanola's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.32
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.78
1.19
Huachipato xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
5%
19.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Huachipato?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Huachipato expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.19 for Huachipato, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Huachipato?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Espanola's recent record stands at 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Huachipato, meanwhile, have gone 1W 6D 4L across 11 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Huachipato is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Espanola by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Huachipato heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union Espanola have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Huachipato's away record stands at 0W 3D 2L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Espanola come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Espanola are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Huachipato are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Blended
Huachipato
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Huachipato in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Huachipato have gone 1W 6D 4L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Huachipato away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.60 PPG; Huachipato away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 12 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2022, when Union Espanola won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Espanola's record when hosting Huachipato specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Espanola
1
Draws
4
Huachipato
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Huachipato?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 5, Huachipato have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Huachipato last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2025, when Union Espanola 4-2 Huachipato.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Huachipato?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Espanola at 80%, Huachipato at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Union Espanola) and 40% (Huachipato).
On the defensive side: Huachipato in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Huachipato away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Huachipato?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Union Espanola's games and 60% of Huachipato's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Huachipato usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Union Espanola's recent games and 40% of Huachipato's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Espanola and Huachipato tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Huachipato in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Espanola cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Huachipato.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Huachipato 3-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.59 xG and Huachipato 1.19 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union Espanola beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.10 / defence 1.32 against Huachipato attack 0.96 / defence 1.50, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 44% | Draw 30% | Huachipato 26%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 46%, Huachipato 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Huachipato's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Espanola arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Huachipato (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.