U. Catolica 1-3 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours U. Catolica (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as U. Catolica face Universidad de Chile.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Universidad de Chile travel to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to take on U. Catolica. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
U. Catolica's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Universidad de Chile stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Universidad de Chile have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
U. Catolica are in the better shape of the two on current Primera División data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for U. Catolica, 1 for Universidad de Chile and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with Universidad de Chile winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
U. Catolica trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Universidad de Chile trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 52% versus Universidad de Chile 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 61% | Universidad de Chile 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.52 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 0.914 / defence 0.918 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.893 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.293. Data: 56 U. Catolica games / 56 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 48% | Draw 26% | Universidad de Chile 27%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Universidad de Chile 3.70. U. Catolica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates U. Catolica as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: U. Catolica 50% | Universidad de Chile 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 48% | Draw 26% | Universidad de Chile 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG U. Catolica 1.52 / Universidad de Chile 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 0.914 / def 0.918 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.893 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Universidad de Chile xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
U. Catolica 1 - 3 Universidad de Chile.
Where is U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile part of?
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 48% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile?
Record (4 meetings): U. Catolica 3W | Draws 0 | Universidad de Chile 1W.
What form are U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Universidad de Chile (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from U. Catolica's attack rating (0.91) and Universidad de Chile's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Universidad de Chile's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.89
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.58
1.06
Universidad de Chile xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
6%
17.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.06 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
U. Catolica's recent record stands at 23W 13D 20L from 56 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Universidad de Chile, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 26L across 56 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: U. Catolica on 1.46 PPG, Universidad de Chile on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, U. Catolica have managed 13W 8D 7L from 28 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Universidad de Chile's away record stands at 8W 4D 16L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
U. Catolica are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.16 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Universidad de Chile in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Blended
Universidad de Chile
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 23W 13D 20L in their last 56 games (1.46 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 17W 13D 26L in their last 56 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Universidad de Chile away?
U. Catolica's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.68 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when U. Catolica won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Universidad de Chile specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
U. Catolica
0
Draws
5
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 5, Universidad de Chile have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Universidad de Chile 1-0 U. Catolica.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 46%, Universidad de Chile 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (U. Catolica) and 64% (Universidad de Chile).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; U. Catolica have failed to score in 29% of games; Universidad de Chile in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Universidad de Chile?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of U. Catolica's games and 68% of Universidad de Chile's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of U. Catolica's recent games and 64% of Universidad de Chile's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Universidad de Chile in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Universidad de Chile cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over U. Catolica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat U. Catolica 1-3 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.52 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.06 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Universidad de Chile outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 0.91 / defence 0.92 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.89 / defence 1.16, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 48% | Draw 26% | Universidad de Chile 27%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Universidad de Chile win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 61%, Universidad de Chile 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.46 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Universidad de Chile win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.