Palestino 3-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 41%, yet in-form Palestino provide a compelling counter-argument — this Palestino vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palestino host Cobresal at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Palestino have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Palestino's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobresal stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Cobresal away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Palestino carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Palestino have won 1, Cobresal 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Palestino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palestino trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cobresal trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Palestino 69% and Cobresal 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 59% | Cobresal 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.21 xG and Cobresal 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 0.871 / defence 1.164 | Cobresal attack 1.169 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.040. Data: 45 Palestino games / 45 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 32% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 41%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Cobresal 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palestino (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Palestino 80% | Cobresal 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 32% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Palestino 1.21 / Cobresal 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 0.871 / def 1.164 | Cobresal attack 1.169 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Cobresal xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Cobresal kick off?
Palestino vs Cobresal kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Cobresal?
Palestino 3 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Palestino vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Cobresal part of?
Palestino vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 32% chance of winning, Cobresal a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Palestino and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Cobresal?
Record (1 meetings): Palestino 1W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 0W.
What form are Palestino and Cobresal in?
Palestino (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Cobresal (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palestino's attack rating (0.87) and Cobresal's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
32%
3.15
27%
3.72
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.62
1.41
Cobresal xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
8%
12.96
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Palestino and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Palestino and 1.41 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palestino come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 8D 13L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.25 PPG from 32 outings (11W 7D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palestino on 1.28 PPG, Cobresal on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Palestino's home form reads 6W 4D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palestino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palestino are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.25 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palestino have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 11W 8D 13L in their last 32 games (1.28 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Cobresal away?
Palestino's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.38 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Palestino or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Cobresal in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palestino and Cobresal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2023, when Cobresal won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palestino's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Palestino
0
Draws
4
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 6, Cobresal have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Palestino 4-2 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Cobresal?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palestino see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 62%, Cobresal 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Palestino) and 56% (Cobresal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 6% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cobresal in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Cobresal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Palestino's games and 56% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palestino vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Palestino's matches and 56% of Cobresal's.
Do Palestino and Cobresal tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palestino cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cobresal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Cobresal 3-1 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.21 xG and Cobresal 1.41 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Palestino beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 0.87 / defence 1.16 against Cobresal attack 1.17 / defence 0.95, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 32% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 41%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Palestino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 59%, Cobresal 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.28 PPG, Cobresal 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.