O'Higgins 0-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Coquimbo Unido (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as O'Higgins face Coquimbo Unido.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coquimbo Unido make the trip to Estadio El Teniente to face O'Higgins in Primera División, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 October 2025 at 21:30 UTC.
Current Form
O'Higgins's overall Primera División record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for O'Higgins, so this record blends games from this season and last.
O'Higgins at Estadio El Teniente this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Teniente.
Coquimbo Unido (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Coquimbo Unido arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 2.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for O'Higgins, 4 for Coquimbo Unido and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
O'Higgins — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Coquimbo Unido — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — O'Higgins 48% versus Coquimbo Unido 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (O'Higgins 50% | Coquimbo Unido 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects O'Higgins 0.95 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: O'Higgins attack 0.981 / defence 0.878 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.181 / defence 0.635. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.113. Coquimbo Unido's defence strength of 0.635 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 O'Higgins games / 54 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: O'Higgins 30% | Draw 30% | Coquimbo Unido 40%. Fair-value odds: O'Higgins 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Coquimbo Unido 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coquimbo Unido are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: O'Higgins 50% | Coquimbo Unido 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: O'Higgins 30% | Draw 30% | Coquimbo Unido 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG O'Higgins 0.95 / Coquimbo Unido 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: O'Higgins attack 0.981 / def 0.878 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.181 / def 0.635 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
O'Higgins xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Coquimbo Unido xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
O'Higgins 0 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives O'Higgins a 30% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (7 meetings): O'Higgins 2W | Draws 1 | Coquimbo Unido 4W.
What form are O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido in?
O'Higgins (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates O'Higgins's attack at 0.98x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (1.18x) against O'Higgins's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
30%
3.33
30%
3.37
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
O'Higgins xG
Total xG
2.11
1.16
Coquimbo Unido xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.0 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for O'Higgins and 1.16 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, O'Higgins have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 20W 15D 19L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for O'Higgins is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 30W 14D 10L from 54 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Coquimbo Unido are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against O'Higgins.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, O'Higgins have posted 1.50 PPG from 26 outings (10W 9D 7L).
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 14W 4D 8L from 26 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
O'Higgins are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.37 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
O'Higgins
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
O'Higgins have gone 20W 15D 19L in their last 54 games (1.39 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 30W 14D 10L in their last 54 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — O'Higgins at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Coquimbo Unido's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — O'Higgins at home: 1.50 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.77 PPG.
Have O'Higgins or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
O'Higgins have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, O'Higgins have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
O'Higgins
2
Draws
5
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, O'Higgins have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 0-0 O'Higgins.
Who has won more matches between O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
O'Higgins are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — O'Higgins 42%, Coquimbo Unido 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (O'Higgins) and 46% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: O'Higgins keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 35%; O'Higgins have failed to score in 31% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = O'Higgins home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when O'Higgins play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of O'Higgins's recent matches and 42% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of O'Higgins's recent games and 46% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
O'Higgins have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out O'Higgins 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat O'Higgins 0-1 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 0.95 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.16 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. O'Higgins fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.18 / defence 0.64, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 30% | Draw 30% | Coquimbo Unido 40%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 50%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
O'Higgins's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.39. That form edge translated into the three points. O'Higgins (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.