Nublense 6-1 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union Espanola make the trip to Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún to face Nublense in Primera División, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 November 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Nublense (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nublense have posted 2W 5D 3L at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Union Espanola have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Nublense, 1 for Union Espanola and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 2–3 with Union Espanola winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Nublense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nublense 52% and Union Espanola 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 45% | Union Espanola 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.12 xG and Union Espanola 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.863 / defence 1.016 | Union Espanola attack 0.798 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.303. Union Espanola bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Nublense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Nublense games / 29 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 37% | Draw 29% | Union Espanola 34%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Union Espanola 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nublense as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Nublense 40% | Union Espanola 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 37% | Draw 29% | Union Espanola 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Nublense 1.12 / Union Espanola 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 0.863 / def 1.016 | Union Espanola attack 0.798 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Nublense (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Union Espanola xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Union Espanola kick off?
Nublense vs Union Espanola kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Union Espanola?
Nublense 6 - 1 Union Espanola.
Where is Nublense vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Union Espanola part of?
Nublense vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 37% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nublense and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Union Espanola?
Record (1 meetings): Nublense 0W | Draws 0 | Union Espanola 1W.
What form are Nublense and Union Espanola in?
Nublense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Union Espanola (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nublense's attack rating (0.86) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.80x) against Nublense's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.39
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.17
1.06
Union Espanola xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nublense and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Nublense and 1.06 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Nublense have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 9W 11D 9L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Union Espanola's form line: 14W 3D 12L from 29 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Nublense against 1.55 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nublense have posted 1.64 PPG from 14 outings (6W 5D 3L).
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 5W 1D 8L from 14 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Espanola's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nublense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nublense are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.59 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 9W 11D 9L in their last 29 games (1.31 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 14W 3D 12L in their last 29 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Union Espanola away?
Nublense's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.64 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Nublense or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Union Espanola have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nublense won 6-1 on 13 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nublense
1
Draws
7
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 2, Union Espanola have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Nublense 1-2 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Union Espanola?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 43%, Union Espanola 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Nublense) and 57% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Nublense have failed to score in 29% of games; Union Espanola in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Nublense's recent matches and 50% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nublense vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Nublense's recent games and 57% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nublense run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Union Espanola.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Union Espanola 6-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 32, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.12 xG and Union Espanola 1.06 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Nublense beat their projection by 4.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Union Espanola attack 0.80 / defence 1.25, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 37% | Draw 29% | Union Espanola 34%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 45%, Union Espanola 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Espanola's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.31 PPG, Union Espanola 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Nublense (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Union Espanola (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.