Nublense 0-0 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union Espanola make the trip to Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún to face Nublense in Primera División, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 23 August 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Nublense (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nublense have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
Union Espanola have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Union Espanola, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 3–5 with Union Espanola winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union Espanola have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Nublense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 56% versus Union Espanola 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 48% | Union Espanola 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.67 xG and Union Espanola 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.113 / defence 0.920 | Union Espanola attack 1.060 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.236. Data: 50 Nublense games / 50 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 48% | Draw 24% | Union Espanola 28%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Union Espanola 3.57. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nublense as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Nublense 40% | Union Espanola 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 48% | Draw 24% | Union Espanola 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Nublense 1.67 / Union Espanola 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.113 / def 0.920 | Union Espanola attack 1.060 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Nublense (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Union Espanola xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Union Espanola kick off?
Nublense vs Union Espanola kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Union Espanola?
Nublense 0 - 0 Union Espanola.
Where is Nublense vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Union Espanola part of?
Nublense vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 48% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nublense and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Union Espanola?
Record (7 meetings): Nublense 2W | Draws 0 | Union Espanola 5W.
What form are Nublense and Union Espanola in?
Nublense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Union Espanola (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nublense's attack rating (1.11) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (1.06x) against Nublense's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
48%
2.07
24%
4.14
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.88
1.21
Union Espanola xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
5%
19.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Nublense and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Nublense and 1.21 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Nublense have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 16W 13D 21L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Espanola's form line: 19W 14D 17L from 50 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Nublense against 1.42 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nublense have posted 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 4W 9D 10L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Espanola's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nublense are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.58 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 16W 13D 21L in their last 50 games (1.22 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 19W 14D 17L in their last 50 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Union Espanola away?
Nublense's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.22 PPG; Union Espanola away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Union Espanola have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nublense won 6-1 on 13 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nublense
1
Draws
7
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 2, Union Espanola have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Nublense 1-2 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Union Espanola?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 52%, Union Espanola 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nublense) and 44% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Union Espanola in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Nublense's recent matches and 52% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nublense vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nublense's recent games and 44% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nublense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense and Union Espanola finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.67 xG and Union Espanola 1.21 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nublense fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Union Espanola landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.11 / defence 0.92 against Union Espanola attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 48% | Draw 24% | Union Espanola 28%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 48%, Union Espanola 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Espanola's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.22 PPG, Union Espanola 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.