Nublense 1-0 A. Italiano – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nublense at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs A. Italiano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún plays host to Nublense versus A. Italiano in Primera División, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 June 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.43 xG and A. Italiano 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.438 / defence 1.068 | A. Italiano attack 0.794 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 0.948 / away 0.951. Nublense carry an above-average attack strength of 1.438 — their λ of 1.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 Nublense games / 8 A. Italiano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 52% | Draw 28% | A. Italiano 21%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | A. Italiano 4.76. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nublense at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs A. Italiano | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Jun 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 52% | Draw 28% | A. Italiano 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Nublense 1.43 / A. Italiano 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.438 / def 1.068 | A. Italiano attack 0.794 / def 1.051 | league avg home 0.948 / away 0.951 • Poisson stance: Nublense (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
0.81
A. Italiano xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs A. Italiano kick off?
Nublense vs A. Italiano kicked off at 01:30 on Tuesday 8 June 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs A. Italiano?
Nublense 1 - 0 A. Italiano.
Where is Nublense vs A. Italiano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs A. Italiano part of?
Nublense vs A. Italiano is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs A. Italiano?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 52% chance of winning, A. Italiano a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs A. Italiano?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Nublense and A. Italiano will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs A. Italiano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and A. Italiano?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nublense and A. Italiano in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nublense's attack at 1.44x the league average against A. Italiano's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — A. Italiano's attack (0.79x) against Nublense's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
52%
1.94
28%
3.64
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.24
0.81
A. Italiano xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
5%
20.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs A. Italiano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Nublense and A. Italiano expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Nublense and 0.81 for A. Italiano, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs A. Italiano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Pre-Season
A. Italiano
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nublense won 0-3 on 19 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against A. Italiano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nublense
0
Draws
6
A. Italiano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and A. Italiano?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 4, A. Italiano have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and A. Italiano last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Nublense 1-0 A. Italiano.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and A. Italiano?
A. Italiano have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / A. Italiano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Nublense edge out A. Italiano 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat A. Italiano 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.43 xG and A. Italiano 0.81 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. A. Italiano landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.44 / defence 1.07 against A. Italiano attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 52% | Draw 28% | A. Italiano 21%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.