Everton de Vina 2-2 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Palestino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 13 as Everton de Vina welcome Palestino to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 May 2023 at 01:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton de Vina's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Estadio Sausalito this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palestino stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Palestino's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Everton de Vina) versus 1.30 (Palestino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Everton de Vina have won 2, Palestino 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 4–1 with Everton de Vina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Palestino in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 45% versus Palestino 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 32% | Palestino 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.90 xG and Palestino 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.051 / defence 0.889 | Palestino attack 1.020 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.239. Palestino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Everton de Vina games / 42 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 55% | Draw 22% | Palestino 22%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Palestino 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Everton de Vina (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 60% | Palestino 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 55% | Draw 22% | Palestino 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Everton de Vina 1.90 / Palestino 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.051 / def 0.889 | Palestino attack 1.020 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Palestino xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Palestino kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Palestino kicked off at 01:30 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Everton de Vina 2 - 2 Palestino.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Palestino part of?
Everton de Vina vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 55% chance of winning, Palestino a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Everton de Vina and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
Record (3 meetings): Everton de Vina 2W | Draws 1 | Palestino 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Palestino in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Palestino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Palestino's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.48
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
3.02
1.12
Palestino xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
15%
6.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
3%
29.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.12 for Palestino, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 19W 24D 19L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Palestino's form line: 23W 18D 21L from 62 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.31 PPG, Palestino on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.45 PPG from 31 outings (11W 12D 8L).
On the road, Palestino have gone 8W 11D 12L from 31 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.50 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Palestino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Palestino in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 19W 24D 19L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while Palestino have gone 23W 18D 21L in their last 62 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Palestino away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.45 PPG; Palestino away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Palestino in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Palestino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palestino have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Everton de Vina won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 4, Palestino have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 39%, Palestino 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Everton de Vina) and 48% (Palestino).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 32% of games; Palestino in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Palestino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 58% of Palestino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 48% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Palestino tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Palestino in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and Palestino share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 13, as Everton de Vina and Palestino drew 2-2 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.90 xG and Palestino 1.12 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Palestino outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against Palestino attack 1.02 / defence 1.27, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 55% | Draw 22% | Palestino 22%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 32%, Palestino 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Palestino's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.31 PPG, Palestino 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palestino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.