Everton de Vina 0-0 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 35%, yet in-form Palestino provide a compelling counter-argument — this Everton de Vina vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 11 as Everton de Vina welcome Palestino to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton de Vina's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Sausalito this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Sausalito. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Everton de Vina are significantly better at Estadio Sausalito than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palestino stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Palestino's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Palestino's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Everton de Vina's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Everton de Vina have won 1, Palestino 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Everton de Vina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Palestino in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 38% versus Palestino 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 31% | Palestino 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 0.92 xG and Palestino 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.770 / defence 0.886 | Palestino attack 0.916 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.054. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Everton de Vina games / 42 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 35% | Draw 34% | Palestino 31%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Palestino 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Palestino's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palestino (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. This conflicts with form data: Everton de Vina 40% | Palestino 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 35% | Draw 34% | Palestino 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Everton de Vina 0.92 / Palestino 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.770 / def 0.886 | Palestino attack 0.916 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Palestino xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Palestino kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Palestino kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Everton de Vina 0 - 0 Palestino.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Palestino part of?
Everton de Vina vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 35% chance of winning, Palestino a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Everton de Vina and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
Record (1 meetings): Everton de Vina 1W | Draws 0 | Palestino 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Palestino in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Palestino (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Palestino's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
35%
2.89
34%
2.93
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
1.77
0.86
Palestino xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 14.6 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.86 for Palestino, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 10W 9D 13L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Palestino's form line: 11W 8D 13L from 32 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.22 PPG, Palestino on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L).
On the road, Palestino have gone 5W 4D 7L from 16 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.50 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palestino in 69%.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Palestino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Palestino in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Palestino have gone 11W 8D 13L in their last 32 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Palestino away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.38 PPG; Palestino away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Palestino in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Palestino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palestino have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Everton de Vina won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 4, Palestino have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 31%, Palestino 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Everton de Vina) and 56% (Palestino).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Palestino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 75% of Palestino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 56% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Palestino tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Palestino in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina and Palestino finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 0.92 xG and Palestino 0.86 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Palestino landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.77 / defence 0.89 against Palestino attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 35% | Draw 34% | Palestino 31%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 31%, Palestino 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palestino's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.22 PPG, Palestino 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Palestino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.