Everton de Vina 0-1 Huachipato – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Huachipato fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Huachipato travel to Estadio Sausalito to take on Everton de Vina. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton de Vina stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton de Vina at Estadio Sausalito this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Sausalito. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Everton de Vina are significantly better at Estadio Sausalito than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Huachipato have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Huachipato have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Huachipato's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Everton de Vina's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Everton de Vina, 0 for Huachipato and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Everton de Vina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Huachipato in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 38% versus Huachipato 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton de Vina 31% | Huachipato 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.24 xG and Huachipato 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.825 / defence 0.815 | Huachipato attack 0.748 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.139. Data: 40 Everton de Vina games / 40 Huachipato games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 31% | Huachipato 20%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Huachipato 5.00. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Huachipato (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 40% | Huachipato 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Huachipato | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 31% | Huachipato 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 36% | xG Everton de Vina 1.24 / Huachipato 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.825 / def 0.815 | Huachipato attack 0.748 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Huachipato xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Huachipato kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Huachipato kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Everton de Vina 0 - 1 Huachipato.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Huachipato being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Huachipato part of?
Everton de Vina vs Huachipato is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 49% chance of winning, Huachipato a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Everton de Vina and Huachipato will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Huachipato have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Huachipato?
Record (1 meetings): Everton de Vina 1W | Draws 0 | Huachipato 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Huachipato in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Huachipato (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Huachipato's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Huachipato's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
49%
2.04
31%
3.25
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
1.94
0.69
Huachipato xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
6%
17.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.4 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Huachipato expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.69 for Huachipato, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton de Vina come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 9D 13L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Huachipato sit at 1.16 PPG from 32 outings (8W 13D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.22 PPG, Huachipato on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Everton de Vina's home form reads 6W 4D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Huachipato have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (3W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Huachipato are on 1.12 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Huachipato
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Huachipato in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Huachipato have gone 8W 13D 11L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Huachipato away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.38 PPG; Huachipato away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Huachipato been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Huachipato in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Huachipato won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Huachipato specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
1
Draws
6
Huachipato
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Huachipato?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 3, Huachipato have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Huachipato last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-3 Huachipato.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Huachipato?
Huachipato have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 31%, Huachipato 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Everton de Vina) and 44% (Huachipato).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 31% of games; Huachipato in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Huachipato away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Huachipato?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 56% of Huachipato's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Huachipato usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 44% of Huachipato's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Huachipato tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Huachipato in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Huachipato defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Huachipato beat Everton de Vina 0-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.24 xG and Huachipato 0.69 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Everton de Vina fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.82 / defence 0.81 against Huachipato attack 0.75 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 31% | Huachipato 20%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Huachipato win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 31%, Huachipato 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Huachipato's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.22 PPG, Huachipato 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Huachipato win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Huachipato (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.