Everton de Vina 0-3 Huachipato – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 39%, yet in-form Huachipato provide a compelling counter-argument — this Everton de Vina vs Huachipato fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Huachipato travel to Estadio Sausalito to take on Everton de Vina. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton de Vina stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Everton de Vina at Estadio Sausalito this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Primera División games this season, Huachipato have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Huachipato have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Huachipato's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Everton de Vina's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Huachipato, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Everton de Vina.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 4–1 with Everton de Vina winning.
It is worth noting that Huachipato have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Huachipato in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 57% versus Huachipato 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 48% | Huachipato 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.14 xG and Huachipato 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.724 / defence 1.028 | Huachipato attack 0.997 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 0.958. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Everton de Vina games / 32 Huachipato games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 39% | Draw 30% | Huachipato 31%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Huachipato 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Huachipato (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Everton de Vina 50% | Huachipato 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Huachipato | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 39% | Draw 30% | Huachipato 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Everton de Vina 1.14 / Huachipato 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.724 / def 1.028 | Huachipato attack 0.997 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.551 / away 0.958 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Huachipato xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Huachipato kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Huachipato kicked off at 21:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Everton de Vina 0 - 3 Huachipato.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Huachipato being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Huachipato part of?
Everton de Vina vs Huachipato is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 39% chance of winning, Huachipato a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Everton de Vina and Huachipato will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Huachipato have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Huachipato?
Record (8 meetings): Everton de Vina 2W | Draws 1 | Huachipato 5W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Huachipato in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Huachipato (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Huachipato's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Huachipato's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.38
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.12
0.98
Huachipato xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Huachipato expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.98 for Huachipato, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton de Vina come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 17D 25L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Huachipato sit at 1.28 PPG from 60 outings (21W 14D 25L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.18 PPG, Huachipato on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Everton de Vina's home form reads 9W 12D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Huachipato have taken 0.80 points per game from 30 outings (6W 6D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Huachipato's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Huachipato are on 1.18 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Huachipato
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Huachipato in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Huachipato have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Huachipato away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.30 PPG; Huachipato away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Huachipato won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Huachipato specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
1
Draws
6
Huachipato
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Huachipato?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 3, Huachipato have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Huachipato last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Huachipato 1-4 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Huachipato?
Huachipato have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 50%, Huachipato 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Everton de Vina) and 57% (Huachipato).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 33% of games; Huachipato in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Huachipato away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Huachipato?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 50% of Huachipato's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Huachipato usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 57% of Huachipato's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Huachipato tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Huachipato in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Huachipato run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Everton de Vina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Huachipato beat Everton de Vina 0-3 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.14 xG and Huachipato 0.98 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Huachipato outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.72 / defence 1.03 against Huachipato attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 39% | Draw 30% | Huachipato 31%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Huachipato win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 48%, Huachipato 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.18 PPG, Huachipato 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Huachipato win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Huachipato (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.