Everton de Vina 1-0 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Deportes Copiapo make the trip to Estadio Sausalito to face Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Everton de Vina (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Everton de Vina have posted 2W 3D 5L at Estadio Sausalito — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Deportes Copiapo's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Deportes Copiapo's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton de Vina lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Deportes Copiapo winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Deportes Copiapo — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 57% versus Deportes Copiapo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 50% | Deportes Copiapo 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 2.37 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.122 / defence 1.078 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.880 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.414. Deportes Copiapo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.374 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Everton de Vina games / 42 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 60% | Draw 19% | Deportes Copiapo 21%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 1.67 | Draw 5.26 | Deportes Copiapo 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Everton de Vina (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 72% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.

Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.71 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 80% | Deportes Copiapo 50% BTTS from recent games.

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