Everton de Vina 3-2 D. La Serena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates D. La Serena at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton de Vina and D. La Serena meet at Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
D. La Serena (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for D. La Serena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
D. La Serena's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Everton de Vina, 1.30 for D. La Serena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, D. La Serena in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Everton de Vina 4W, D. La Serena 3W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with D. La Serena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
D. La Serena half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 48% versus D. La Serena 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 48% | D. La Serena 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.42 xG and D. La Serena 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.929 / defence 1.054 | D. La Serena attack 1.077 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.299. Data: 53 Everton de Vina games / 53 D. La Serena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 36% | Draw 25% | D. La Serena 39%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | D. La Serena 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is D. La Serena at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on D. La Serena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 60% | D. La Serena 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 36% | Draw 25% | D. La Serena 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Everton de Vina 1.42 / D. La Serena 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.929 / def 1.054 | D. La Serena attack 1.077 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: D. La Serena (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.48
D. La Serena xG
59%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena kick off?
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena?
Everton de Vina 3 - 2 D. La Serena.
Where is Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena being played?
The match is being played at Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena part of?
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 36% chance of winning, D. La Serena a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making D. La Serena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Everton de Vina and D. La Serena will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and D. La Serena?
Record (7 meetings): Everton de Vina 4W | Draws 0 | D. La Serena 3W.
What form are Everton de Vina and D. La Serena in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. D. La Serena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.93) and D. La Serena's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — D. La Serena's attack (1.08x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
D. La Serena Win
36%
2.74
25%
4.04
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.90
1.48
D. La Serena xG
2.74
36%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and D. La Serena expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.48 for D. La Serena, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton de Vina come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 14D 23L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, D. La Serena sit at 1.10 PPG from 52 outings (14W 15D 23L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for D. La Serena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.10 for D. La Serena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Everton de Vina's home form reads 6W 11D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, D. La Serena have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (5W 7D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; D. La Serena are on 1.25 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: D. La Serena in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
D. La Serena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and D. La Serena in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 15W 14D 23L in their last 52 games (1.13 PPG), while D. La Serena have gone 14W 15D 23L in their last 52 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or D. La Serena away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.12 PPG; D. La Serena away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: D. La Serena won 0-4 on 1 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against D. La Serena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Everton de Vina
0
Draws
3
D. La Serena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and D. La Serena?
From 8 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 5, D. La Serena have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and D. La Serena last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-2 D. La Serena.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and D. La Serena?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
D. La Serena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 54%, D. La Serena 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Everton de Vina) and 58% (D. La Serena).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / D. La Serena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play D. La Serena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Everton de Vina's games and 69% of D. La Serena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 58% of D. La Serena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and D. La Serena tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, D. La Serena in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Everton de Vina defy the odds to beat D. La Serena 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat D. La Serena 3-2 at Sausalito, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.42 xG and D. La Serena 1.48 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against D. La Serena attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 36% | Draw 25% | D. La Serena 39%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 48%, D. La Serena 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
D. La Serena's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.13 PPG, D. La Serena 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. D. La Serena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.