Deportes Limache 4-0 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Deportes Limache at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union La Calera make the trip to Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza to face Deportes Limache in Primera División, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Deportes Limache (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Deportes Limache have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Union La Calera's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Union La Calera have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Deportes Limache's favour (1.40 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Deportes Limache 1W, Union La Calera 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Deportes Limache winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Deportes Limache — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Union La Calera — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Limache 53% versus Union La Calera 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Limache 50% | Union La Calera 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 1.96 xG and Union La Calera 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 1.188 / defence 0.797 | Union La Calera attack 0.790 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.123. Deportes Limache's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Deportes Limache games / 37 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 67% | Draw 20% | Union La Calera 13%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Union La Calera 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Deportes Limache (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Deportes Limache as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Limache 10% | Union La Calera 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Limache 67% | Draw 20% | Union La Calera 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 44% | xG Deportes Limache 1.96 / Union La Calera 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Limache attack 1.188 / def 0.797 | Union La Calera attack 0.790 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Deportes Limache (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Deportes Limache xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Union La Calera xG
44%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera kick off?
Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What was the final score in Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera?
Deportes Limache 4 - 0 Union La Calera.
Where is Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What competition is Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera part of?
Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Limache a 67% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Deportes Limache the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Deportes Limache and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Union La Calera?
Record (2 meetings): Deportes Limache 1W | Draws 0 | Union La Calera 1W.
What form are Deportes Limache and Union La Calera in?
Deportes Limache (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Union La Calera (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Deportes Limache's attack at 1.19x the league average against Union La Calera's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union La Calera's attack (0.79x) against Deportes Limache's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Limache Win
67%
1.49
20%
4.89
13%
7.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Deportes Limache xG
Total xG
2.67
0.71
Union La Calera xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
7.97
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
14%
7.12
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
2%
56.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Deportes Limache and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 0.71 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Deportes Limache come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 7D 15L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 0.97 PPG from 30 outings (8W 5D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Deportes Limache against 0.97 for Union La Calera. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Deportes Limache's home form reads 7W 2D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Deportes Limache are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 0.53 points per game from 15 outings (2W 2D 11L). That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union La Calera's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Limache come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Deportes Limache are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 0.93 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Limache
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Limache and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Deportes Limache have gone 8W 7D 15L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 8W 5D 17L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Limache at home or Union La Calera away?
Deportes Limache's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Limache at home: 1.53 PPG; Union La Calera away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Deportes Limache or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deportes Limache have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Deportes Limache have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Deportes Limache won 4-0 on 4 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Limache have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Deportes Limache
0
Draws
1
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Union La Calera?
From 3 meetings on record, Deportes Limache have won 2, Union La Calera have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Limache and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Deportes Limache 4-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Limache and Union La Calera?
Deportes Limache have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deportes Limache see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Union La Calera see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 27% (Deportes Limache) and 40% (Union La Calera) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Deportes Limache and 27% for Union La Calera.
On the defensive side: Deportes Limache keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Deportes Limache have failed to score in 27% of games; Union La Calera in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Limache home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Limache play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Deportes Limache's recent matches and 40% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Deportes Limache's recent games and 27% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Deportes Limache run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Limache beat Union La Calera 4-0 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.96 xG and Union La Calera 0.71 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Limache beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 1.19 / defence 0.80 against Union La Calera attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 67% | Draw 20% | Union La Calera 13%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 50%, Union La Calera 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union La Calera's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Limache 1.03 PPG, Union La Calera 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Limache win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.