Deportes Limache 2-2 Palestino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Deportes Limache at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Limache vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza plays host to Deportes Limache versus Palestino in Primera División, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 11 October 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Deportes Limache (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Limache, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Limache at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Deportes Limache are significantly better at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza than their overall form suggests.
Palestino's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Palestino have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Deportes Limache against 1.60 for Palestino. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Palestino hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Palestino winning.
It is worth noting that Palestino have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Deportes Limache goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Palestino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Limache 55% versus Palestino 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Limache 60% | Palestino 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 1.60 xG and Palestino 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 1.059 / defence 0.990 | Palestino attack 0.818 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.299. Data: 53 Deportes Limache games / 53 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 50% | Draw 25% | Palestino 25%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Palestino 4.00. Deportes Limache hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deportes Limache at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deportes Limache if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Deportes Limache 30% | Palestino 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Limache vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Limache 50% | Draw 25% | Palestino 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Deportes Limache 1.60 / Palestino 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Limache attack 1.059 / def 0.990 | Palestino attack 0.818 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Deportes Limache (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Deportes Limache xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Palestino xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Limache vs Palestino kick off?
Deportes Limache vs Palestino kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What was the final score in Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Deportes Limache 2 - 2 Palestino.
Where is Deportes Limache vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What competition is Deportes Limache vs Palestino part of?
Deportes Limache vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Limache a 50% chance of winning, Palestino a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Deportes Limache the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Deportes Limache and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Limache vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Palestino?
Record (3 meetings): Deportes Limache 0W | Draws 0 | Palestino 3W.
What form are Deportes Limache and Palestino in?
Deportes Limache (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Palestino (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Deportes Limache's attack at 1.06x the league average against Palestino's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palestino's attack (0.82x) against Deportes Limache's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Limache Win
50%
1.99
25%
4.01
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Deportes Limache xG
Total xG
2.66
1.05
Palestino xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
5%
19.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Deportes Limache and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 1.05 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Deportes Limache's recent record stands at 18W 10D 25L from 53 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Deportes Limache is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palestino, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 18L across 53 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Deportes Limache against 1.60 for Palestino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Deportes Limache have managed 14W 2D 10L from 26 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Deportes Limache are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Palestino's away record stands at 10W 4D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Deportes Limache are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.47 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palestino in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Limache
Blended
Palestino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Limache and Palestino in coming into this match?
Deportes Limache have gone 18W 10D 25L in their last 53 games (1.21 PPG), while Palestino have gone 25W 10D 18L in their last 53 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Limache at home or Palestino away?
Deportes Limache's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Limache at home: 1.69 PPG; Palestino away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Limache have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Palestino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Deportes Limache
1
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Palestino?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Limache have won 0, Palestino have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Limache and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Deportes Limache 2-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Limache and Palestino?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deportes Limache are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Limache 31%, Palestino 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Deportes Limache) and 58% (Palestino).
On the defensive side: Deportes Limache keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Limache home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Limache play Palestino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Deportes Limache's recent matches and 58% of Palestino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deportes Limache vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Deportes Limache's recent games and 58% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deportes Limache and Palestino tend to score early?
Deportes Limache have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Palestino in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deportes Limache and Palestino share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 24, as Deportes Limache and Palestino drew 2-2 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.60 xG and Palestino 1.05 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Palestino outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Palestino attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 50% | Draw 25% | Palestino 25%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 60%, Palestino 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Limache's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Palestino's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Limache 1.21 PPG, Palestino 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palestino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.