Deportes Iquique 2-1 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Deportes Iquique face Palestino.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deportes Iquique host Palestino at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Primera División (matchday 10). Kick-off is Monday 29 April 2024 at 02:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Across their last 10 games, Palestino have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palestino's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 0.90 xG and Palestino 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 1.126 / defence 1.219 | Palestino attack 1.024 / defence 0.553. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.297. Palestino bring a tight defence (rating 0.553, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Deportes Iquique's projected output down. Deportes Iquique's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Palestino's projected output up. Data: built from Deportes Iquique's last 9 games and Palestino's last 39.
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 21% | Draw 25% | Palestino 54%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 4.81 | Draw 4.03 | Palestino 1.84. Palestino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, matchday 10 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Monday 29 April 2024 at 02:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 21% | Draw 25% | Palestino 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Deportes Iquique 0.90 / Palestino 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 1.126 / def 1.219 | Palestino attack 1.024 / def 0.553 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Palestino (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Palestino xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Deportes Iquique vs Palestino FAQs
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Palestino kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Palestino kicked off at 02:30 UK time on Monday 29 April 2024 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Deportes Iquique 2 - 1 Palestino.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Palestino part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Palestino is a Primera División fixture (matchday 10) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 21% chance of winning, Palestino a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Palestino will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Deportes Iquique's attack at 1.13x the league average against Palestino's defence at 0.55x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Deportes Iquique's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Deportes Iquique's last 9 games and Palestino's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
21%
4.81
25%
4.03
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.52
1.62
Palestino xG
4.81
21%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
4%
24.26
22%
4.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 13.1 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Deportes Iquique vs Palestino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.62 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
Palestino
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Deportes Iquique (Home) vs Palestino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
Palestino
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2024. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 8 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Palestino have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Deportes Iquique's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Deportes Iquique
0
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Deportes Iquique vs Palestino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Palestino?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Deportes Iquique have won 1, Palestino have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Palestino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2025: Palestino 2-0 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Iquique and Palestino?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Deportes Iquique defy the odds to beat Palestino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat Palestino 2-1 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 0.90 xG and Palestino 1.62 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Iquique beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 1.13 / defence 1.22 against Palestino attack 1.02 / defence 0.55, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 21% | Draw 25% | Palestino 54%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Deportes Iquique win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.