Deportes Copiapo 1-4 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deportes Copiapo host U. Catolica at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
U. Catolica — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, U. Catolica have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.23 xG and U. Catolica 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.822 / defence 1.105 | U. Catolica attack 0.994 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.251. Data: 13 Deportes Copiapo games / 43 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 33% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 40%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | U. Catolica 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates U. Catolica as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 33% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.23 / U. Catolica 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.822 / def 1.105 | U. Catolica attack 0.994 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
1.37
U. Catolica xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica?
Deportes Copiapo 1 - 4 U. Catolica.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 33% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. U. Catolica away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Deportes Copiapo's attack rating (0.82) and U. Catolica's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, U. Catolica's attack versus Deportes Copiapo's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
33%
3.01
27%
3.72
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
2.61
1.37
U. Catolica xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
8%
11.88
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.37 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Pre-Season
U. Catolica
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
U. Catolica go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when U. Catolica won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deportes Copiapo's record when hosting U. Catolica specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Deportes Copiapo
1
Draws
3
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Copiapo have won 0, U. Catolica have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2024, when U. Catolica 4-1 Deportes Copiapo.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant U. Catolica run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Deportes Copiapo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Deportes Copiapo 1-4 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.23 xG and U. Catolica 1.37 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. U. Catolica outscored their 1.37 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against U. Catolica attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 33% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 40%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.