Coquimbo Unido 3-1 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 26 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Union Espanola to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 October 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Coquimbo Unido — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 6W 1D 3L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Espanola stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Coquimbo Unido at 1.00 PPG versus Union Espanola's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Coquimbo Unido, 2 for Union Espanola and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Union Espanola winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Union Espanola trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 62% versus Union Espanola 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 53% | Union Espanola 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.49 xG and Union Espanola 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.993 / defence 1.073 | Union Espanola attack 0.852 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.310. Data: 55 Coquimbo Unido games / 55 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 44% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 31%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Union Espanola 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 70% | Union Espanola 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 44% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.49 / Union Espanola 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.993 / def 1.073 | Union Espanola attack 0.852 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Union Espanola xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Coquimbo Unido 3 - 1 Union Espanola.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 44% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola?
Record (3 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 1W | Draws 0 | Union Espanola 2W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Union Espanola (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Union Espanola's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.91
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.68
1.20
Union Espanola xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.20 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 11D 26L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.25 PPG from 55 outings (18W 15D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coquimbo Unido on 1.18 PPG, Union Espanola on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 12W 5D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 1.07 points per game from 27 outings (8W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 18W 11D 26L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 18W 15D 22L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Union Espanola away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.52 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Coquimbo Unido have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Union Espanola specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
3
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola?
From 8 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, Union Espanola have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Coquimbo Unido 4-2 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 67%, Union Espanola 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Coquimbo Unido) and 44% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Union Espanola in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Union Espanola?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 48% of Union Espanola's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 44% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Union Espanola.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Union Espanola 3-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.49 xG and Union Espanola 1.20 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Union Espanola attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 44% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 31%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 53%, Union Espanola 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Union Espanola's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.18 PPG, Union Espanola 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Union Espanola (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.