Coquimbo Unido 1-1 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 10 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Nublense to Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Coquimbo Unido have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Coquimbo Unido's home record at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nublense — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Nublense have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Coquimbo Unido, 3 for Nublense and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Nublense in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 47% versus Nublense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 43% | Nublense 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.13 xG and Nublense 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.998 / defence 1.123 | Nublense attack 0.922 / defence 0.700. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.056. Nublense's defence strength of 0.700 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Coquimbo Unido games / 39 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 36% | Draw 29% | Nublense 35%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Nublense 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Coquimbo Unido 60% | Nublense 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 36% | Draw 29% | Nublense 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.13 / Nublense 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.998 / def 1.123 | Nublense attack 0.922 / def 0.700 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Nublense xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 1 Nublense.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 36% chance of winning, Nublense a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Nublense?
Record (8 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 3W | Draws 2 | Nublense 3W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Nublense in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Nublense (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 1.00x the league average against Nublense's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nublense's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
36%
2.75
29%
3.45
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.22
1.09
Nublense xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.09 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 60 games, going 35W 15D 10L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Nublense sit at 1.22 PPG from 60 outings (19W 16D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Nublense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 19W 9D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Nublense have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (9W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.18 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Nublense in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Nublense in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 35W 15D 10L in their last 60 games (2.00 PPG), while Nublense have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Nublense away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.20 PPG; Nublense away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Nublense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Nublense in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Nublense specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Coquimbo Unido
3
Draws
3
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Nublense?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 3, Nublense have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 1-1 Nublense.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 50%, Nublense 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Coquimbo Unido) and 47% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Nublense in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Nublense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 47% of Nublense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 47% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Nublense tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Nublense in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido and Nublense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 10, as Coquimbo Unido and Nublense drew 1-1 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.13 xG and Nublense 1.09 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Nublense attack 0.92 / defence 0.70, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 36% | Draw 29% | Nublense 35%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 43%, Nublense 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.