Coquimbo Unido 2-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Everton de Vina (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coquimbo Unido face Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Everton de Vina travel to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 25 September 2024, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's home record at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Everton de Vina have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Everton de Vina's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Coquimbo Unido's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 3 for Everton de Vina and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 62% and Everton de Vina 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 53% | Everton de Vina 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.25 xG and Everton de Vina 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.876 / defence 0.875 | Everton de Vina attack 1.279 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.163. Everton de Vina have an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Coquimbo Unido games / 53 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 35% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 38%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Everton de Vina 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Everton de Vina 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Sep 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 35% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.25 / Everton de Vina 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.876 / def 0.875 | Everton de Vina attack 1.279 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Everton de Vina xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 00:00 on Wednesday 25 September 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 35% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
Record (5 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 1W | Draws 1 | Everton de Vina 3W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 0.88x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
35%
2.83
27%
3.75
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.55
1.30
Everton de Vina xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.30 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido's recent record stands at 25W 12D 16L from 53 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 18L across 53 games — 1.49 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coquimbo Unido on 1.64 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Coquimbo Unido have managed 15W 5D 6L from 26 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 12W 5D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.45 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Everton de Vina in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 25W 12D 16L in their last 53 games (1.64 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 22W 13D 18L in their last 53 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Everton de Vina away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.92 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
4
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 62%, Everton de Vina 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Coquimbo Unido) and 50% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 65% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 50% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.25 xG and Everton de Vina 1.30 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Everton de Vina attack 1.28 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 35% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 38%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 53%, Everton de Vina 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.64 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.