Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 27 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Deportes Copiapo to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 7W 1D 2L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso than their overall form suggests.
Deportes Copiapo — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Copiapo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Copiapo away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Coquimbo Unido) versus 1.30 (Deportes Copiapo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Coquimbo Unido have won 0, Deportes Copiapo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Deportes Copiapo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Deportes Copiapo trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 69% and Deportes Copiapo 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 58% | Deportes Copiapo 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.51 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.092 / defence 1.048 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.684 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.333. Data: 56 Coquimbo Unido games / 26 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Draw 26% | Deportes Copiapo 24%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Deportes Copiapo 4.17. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Coquimbo Unido 70% | Deportes Copiapo 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Draw 26% | Deportes Copiapo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.51 / Deportes Copiapo 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.092 / def 1.048 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.684 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Deportes Copiapo xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 0 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 50% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo?
Record (1 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 0W | Draws 0 | Deportes Copiapo 1W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 1.09x the league average against Deportes Copiapo's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Copiapo's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.80
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.47
0.95
Deportes Copiapo xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
5%
19.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.95 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Coquimbo Unido have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 12W 5D 9L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deportes Copiapo's form line: 7W 8D 11L from 26 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Deportes Copiapo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Coquimbo Unido are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Deportes Copiapo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Coquimbo Unido have posted 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Coquimbo Unido are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Deportes Copiapo have gone 2W 4D 7L from 13 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 1.04 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 12W 5D 9L in their last 26 games (1.58 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.00 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2024, when Deportes Copiapo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Deportes Copiapo specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
0
Draws
2
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo?
From 4 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Deportes Copiapo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 3-0 Coquimbo Unido.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 77%, Deportes Copiapo 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Coquimbo Unido) and 31% (Deportes Copiapo).
On the defensive side: Deportes Copiapo in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Deportes Copiapo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 38% of Deportes Copiapo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 31% of Deportes Copiapo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Deportes Copiapo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Deportes Copiapo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Deportes Copiapo 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.51 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.95 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Copiapo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.09 / defence 1.05 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.68 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 50% | Draw 26% | Deportes Copiapo 24%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 58%, Deportes Copiapo 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.