Coquimbo Unido 3-2 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Coquimbo Unido (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coquimbo Unido face Cobresal.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 8 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Cobresal to Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 April 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Coquimbo Unido — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 9W 1D 0L at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Cobresal have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cobresal's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Coquimbo Unido: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 2 for Cobresal, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Coquimbo Unido and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Cobresal trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 47% versus Cobresal 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 43% | Cobresal 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.79 xG and Cobresal 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.911 / defence 0.987 | Cobresal attack 1.013 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.105. Cobresal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Coquimbo Unido's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Coquimbo Unido games / 37 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 53% | Draw 23% | Cobresal 23%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Cobresal 4.35. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Coquimbo Unido 60% | Cobresal 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 53% | Draw 23% | Cobresal 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.79 / Cobresal 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.911 / def 0.987 | Cobresal attack 1.013 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Cobresal xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal kicked off at 20:30 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Coquimbo Unido 3 - 2 Cobresal.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 53% chance of winning, Cobresal a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal?
Record (8 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 5W | Draws 1 | Cobresal 2W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Cobresal (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
53%
1.87
23%
4.30
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.89
1.10
Cobresal xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
4%
25.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.10 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 60 games, going 35W 15D 10L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (22W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Cobresal — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 19W 9D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (6W 7D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.33 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 35W 15D 10L in their last 60 games (2.00 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Cobresal away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.20 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Cobresal in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Coquimbo Unido have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
2
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, Cobresal have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 3-2 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 50%, Cobresal 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Coquimbo Unido) and 53% (Cobresal).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cobresal in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 43% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 53% of Cobresal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Cobresal 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Cobresal 3-2 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.79 xG and Cobresal 1.10 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobresal outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Cobresal attack 1.01 / defence 1.30, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 53% | Draw 23% | Cobresal 23%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 43%, Cobresal 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.